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Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson. Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

MLB futures: Why Matt Olson could hit the Over in HRs in 2024

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated 3/13/24

With a preseason baseball news cycle that likes to zero in on New York and Los Angeles, you've probably heard plenty about how Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the superstars to bet on when they come up to the plate in 2024. But when looking at dominant players in the MLB, you can't overlook Matt Olson when it comes to this season's home run race.

The Georgia native and veteran first baseman had a career season in 2023 and led the league with 54 regular-season home runs, 10 more homers than Ohtani and 17 more than Judge. Those 54 bombs helped Olson also lead MLB with 139 RBI, a category where neither the Yankees slugger nor the Dodgers' new acquisition even broke the top 10.

Yet a couple of weeks before the 2024 campaign opens, Judge is the favorite at DraftKings to be the league home run leader at +350 (7-2) while Olson is second at +600 (6-1) odds. Both Judge and Ohtani are also expected to hit the Over on their home run totals, 41.5 and 38.5 respectively, while the odds for Olson to hit under 42.5 homers is favored at -125 while over 42.5 home runs is priced at +105.

Sure, preseason predictions can be tricky. But that still seems like a bit of a slight to last year's home run leader.

With that in mind, here's what to consider when betting on Olson's home run total.

Which NL East slugger do you think will hit more HR this season: Matt Olson or Kyle Schwarber?#MLBNHotStove | @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/OiPe4JuKAc
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 13, 2024

To be fair, oddsmakers are likely setting the over/under for Olson as such because of how much his numbers jumped between 2022 and 2023. He went from slashing .240/.325/.477 to .283/.389/.604 and went from 34 homers -- the third-most in his career -- to 54. History has shown that big seasons like that can be a fluke, so DK leaning on the Under isn't too surprising.

That being said, there is some upside for Olson heading into 2024 that suggests he's going to have another big year.

Olson is heading into 2024 after playing back-to-back full seasons of baseball. That's all 162 games in consecutive campaigns for the first time in his career, and the consistency appears to have benefited his game. He also went into spring training in 2023 noting that he "fine-tuned" his at-bat process. Clearly, he took that into the season and set the Braves franchise record for homers.

MLB.com's Manny Randhawa notes that multiple aspects of Olson's plate appearances improved - not just the number of home runs hit -- which suggests that he is primed to improve on last year's numbers.

"He also paced MLB with 139 RBIs and the NL with a .604 slugging percentage," Randhawa writes. "He set career bests in barrel rate (16.4%) and hard-hit rate (55.5%), among other quality-of-contact metrics, and at 29, he’s still in his prime. The question isn’t simply whether he’ll lead the Majors in homers for the second straight year, but also whether he’ll become the first NL player to eclipse the 60-homer milestone since Barry Bonds hit a record 73 in 2001."

If he's right, Olson would more than hit the Over for home runs this season.

MATT OLSON HITS HIS LEAGUE-LEADING 4️⃣3️⃣RD HOME RUN‼️ pic.twitter.com/YXtIKP1JfH
— ESPN (@espn) August 14, 2023

Sure, there are big names out there that pundits are projecting to hit more home runs than last season's leader. But when you look at what Olson is bringing into 2024, there is every reason to believe that he will have another big season.

Whether or not he reaches 54 again may still be up for debate, but that still leaves plenty of room above 42.5 to have another big season. And at +105, you could even get a little change back, so betting the Over is a safe wager.

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