Cowboys' seven likeliest first round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft according to the data

The 2024 NFL Draft is officially one week away and the Dallas Cowboys will soon be on the clock at 24th overall in what will be a must-hit selection.

So far, we know they're likely to pick an offensive lineman but it's impossible to dismiss the possibility of a wide receiver or even defensive lineman... and maybe, just maybe, a cornerback?

ESPN Analytics counts with a "Draft Day Predictor" that assigns a probability value to prospects who are the likeliest to be taken at any given selection. The mathematical model "is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc., expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past."

Using this tool, what are the Cowboys' very likeliest picks at 24th? Here they are ranked from one to seven.

1. OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

• Consensus Ranking: 30th
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 33rd

Not a surprise. The Cowboys' need for a left tackle and possible desire to leave Tyler Smith at guard following a second-team All-Pro year might lead to them taking a tackle no matter what.

Guyton is almost 6-foot-8, ranking 91st in height percentile while having arms longer than 34 inches. He's a very raw and inexperienced prospect but Dallas has never shied away from taking on such projects. 

2. OT Amarius Mims, Georgia

• Consensus Ranking: 24th
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 11th

A supersized athlete with limited experience (803 career snaps and eight starts) that can move like an NFL player. He allowed seven pressures on 402 career pass blocking snaps in the SEC.

Mims' spot on the order will end up being defined by who's willing to take a chance on his monstrous size. His height, weight, arm length, and hand size all rank in the 90th percentile or better. He sounds like a Cowboy already. 

3. iOL Graham Barton, Duke

• Consensus Ranking: 27th
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 25th

In the eyes of many, Barton is the best center in the class even though he played guard and tackle in Duke as well. With sub-33-inch arms, Barton is highly unlikely to play tackle in the NFL but his explosiveness will be hunted by NFL teams come draft night.

After losing Tyler Biadasz in free agency, this selection would make so much sense. As of right now, it seems more about whether or not he'll be on the board when they pick. 

4. WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

• Consensus Ranking: 19th 
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 19th

The Cowboys have an underrated need at wide receiver considering Jalen Tolbert remains a question mark and he's the projected WR3 as of right now. Thomas Jr. didn't have a crazy stat sheet in college but has the size and fluidity to become a quality receiver in the league.

It's starting to seem like Thomas Jr. won't get out of the Top 25.

5. OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

• Consensus Ranking: 25th
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 32nd

Said to not have lost a single rep in the Senior Bowl, Powers-Johnson's stock has been very hard to fully pin down. Many experts like Mel Kiper are calling for him to drop out of the first round but he could very well be the best center in the class.

The Cowboys could find themselves a plug-and-play starter that allowed one pressure in all of 2023. Medicals will be factor.

6. CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

• Consensus Ranking: 22nd
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking: 21st

At 173 pounds, Wiggins' size is a legitimate concern in the NFL, so he'll need to add weight no matter what. But what Wiggins lacks in size and physicality, he makes up for by seemingly knowing where the wide receiver will go every step of the way.

"Elite mirror skills in single coverage," writes Foster for A to Z Sports. "Frequently runs routes for receivers."

7. OT/OG Troy Fautanu, Washington

• Consensus Ranking:
• A to Z Sports analyst James Foster's Ranking:

A player with footwork and hand usage that not every NFL player can brag about, Fautanu might go much earlier than expected next Thursday. But if for some reason he makes it to 24th, the Cowboys better have that card filled with his name. 

Fautanu is violent in a smooth and calculated way thanks to refined technique. He'll likely play guard at the NFL but could stay at left tackle with the right team.